Australia vs South Africa at Lord’s, analysis and opinion; Marnus Labuschagne to open, Pat Cummins vs Kagiso Rabada, when is it?

Australia has retained the Urn, triumphed over India on home shores and beaten almost everyone else to qualify for the World Test Championship Final beginning at Lord’s on Wednesday night, AEST.

By virtue of the quirks of the WTC, and the preference to prioritise lucrative series against India and England, they somehow did not play South Africa during the most recent cycle. But that chance comes this week at the home of cricket in the United Kingdom in the decider.

There is a massive title on the line as Australia seek to defend the WTC title it won in dominant fashion against India two years ago, while South Africa is seeking to end an extended drought when it comes to winning ICC trophies.

Fox Cricket takes a look at some of the Burning Questions for the WTC Final.
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IS MARNUS THE MAN?

This is the million dollar question, or more to the point, it could be the $5.5 million dollar query given the significant boost to prize money for this WTC cycle, with the winners of this Test to pocket that amount.

The Aussies have backed the Queenslander in to open at Lord’s alongside Usman Khawaja ahead of wunderkind Sam Konstas, preferring the known quantity to an incredible but inexperienced talent who sizzled in Melbourne and Sydney last summer.

By promoting Labuschagne, the selection panel have also made it clear that they do not necessarily consider it essential to choose a specialist opener.

It harks back to the decision to promote Smith 17 months ago after Dave Warner retired, which allowed Cameron Green to bat at No.4.

The theory of selecting the best six batters in the country, rather than a specialist who could blunt the new ball and set it up for his teammates, has not backfired yet on the Australians.

But there is always a first time, of course. Let’s hope it is not at Lord’s. The English failed to qualify, but they would never let us forget it.

Loyalty is part of the equation, with Cummins saying part of the reason Labuschagne was preferred was because he had been a feature throughout the two year WTC cycle.

But there is another factor at play.

Cummins has no doubt life has been incredibly difficult for batters in Australia in recent years given the spice in decks around the country, something Fox Cricket’s experts noted throughout the summer against India.

“I think the extra layer to that is that I do believe the wickets in Australia, the pitches in Australia, been as hard as they’ve ever been, probably in Test cricket, for the top order,” Cummins said.

“Probably the start of his Test career was similar to my start and they were pretty flat batting wickets in general, whereas the last few years have been really tough going for the top order.”

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Labuschagne is still considered in Australia’s six best batters … for now. Whether that remains the case in the West Indies, and for the Ashes series again England beginning on November 22, could hinge on his deeds at Lord’s over the next week.

The Australian skipper has urged Labuschagne to be proactive in his approach to opening this week.

“So I think there’s that extra layer (regarding pitches) but I think it’s a similar conversation to Davey Warner over here,” Cummins said.

“I think it’s more about the style and how they go about it. We love when they’re busy and they’re putting pressure back on the bowlers. That’s our message here to Marnus.

“Opening the batting can be tough, but it can also be sometimes the best time to bat here before the Duke sport actually starts swinging. There’s runs to be scored there, so just keeping that positive intent, I think when he’s batting at his best.”

From South Africa’s perspective, captain Temba Bavuma said the Proteas had identified an “opportunity there”.

“I think the conditions as well might bring us into the game as well with the swinging ball,” he said.

“It is very different to Australian conditions, and different to South African conditions as well, so that definitely gives us an opportunity.

“I think both teams have formidable bowling attacks. I think the real opportunity is within the batting line-ups and how they are able to front up and give their bowlers a score to bowl too.”

IS THIS THE WIDEST SLIP CORDON AUSTRALIA HAS EVER HAD?

Speaking of Marnus, Cummins joked it was a case of “little” Labuschagne for the new opener, who has experienced size envy in recent days in the slips.

With Australia selecting both Cameron Green and Beau Webster, the slips might spread further than any Australian cordon in the past – and that is only considering the two all-rounders who possess buckets for hands and arms the length of rakes. Or so it appears.

It must be an intimidating proposition for opposition batters to know the man mountains are there ready to pounce, particularly when they can be complemented by Steve Smith, Australia’s record holder when it comes to catches in the cordon.

“It’s the widest. Actually a few people, a few of the boys were watching them just go about their work yesterday, just in awe,” Cummins said.

“Marnus, he got in there a bit yesterday and he said he felt like a little child standing around them. He was trying his hardest to catch them, whereas they were shelling peas. We will see how we go. But they look pretty impressive.”

WHO IS THE BETTER BOWLER?

“Cool. No worries.”

With that response, Australia’s skipper brushed off a query asking for his reaction to an assessment from English great James Anderson that Kagiso Rabada was the superior bowler between the pair.

From a sheer statistical viewpoint, Rabada is currently the second ranked quick in the world, with the Aussie skipper at No.3 and Josh Hazlewood at No.4.

Rabada, 30, has taken 327 wickets at an average of 22 in 70 Tests. Against Australia he has taken 49 wickets at an average of 23.08 in 10 Tests.

Cummins, 32, has taken 294 Test wickers in 67 Tests at an average of 22.43. Against South Africa he has 41 wickets at an average of 19.31 in eight Tests.

The Aussie captain provided an understandable answer to the query regarding Anderson’s observation. And both of them are superstars.

Cummins, clearly, has more important things on his mind as he seeks to lead Australia to a successful defence of the WTC after a stellar two years in the red ball format. How they get there does not matter to him, as long as they get there.

But there is another factor at play as well when comparing the pair.

Cummins is part of one of the greatest attacks of all time, with Mitchell Starc, Josh Hazlewood and Nathan Lyon all on track to have more than 300 or more Test wickets by the end of the year.

The quartet, and Scott Boland when he plays, share the spoils and play different roles as well, working in tandem with each other to secure the 10 wickets.

The 31-year-old (check) often bowls himself as the first change, allowing Starc and Hazlewood the first crack at rivals. At stages it has been said he does not bowl himself enough.

What is clear is that he is renowned for striking when Australia is desperate for a wicket to change the tempo of an innings, or wrest the momentum back.

The South Africans, of course, are backing their own superstar in.

Aiden Markram told ESPN that similarly to Cummins, Rabada “gets up for the really big moments” and sets an example to follow on the pitch.

“He wants to lead from the front and he takes a lot of guys with him on that journey,” he said.

“Obviously (he is) a big player for us, but he’s (also) been complemented really well in the bowling department by everyone else and they’ve, sort of, found a way to work really well together. No doubt he’s the leader of the attack, but he pulls guys with him and guys tend to follow.”

A champion versus a superstar it may be, and it will be fascinating to watch the individual battles in coming days. But securing 20 wickets is the ultimate goal.

Anderson told the ICC that he is looking forward to the battle between Rabada and Steve Smith, who has excelled at Lord’s in the past.

“The main one for me will be Rabada against Steve Smith and I think that could be a really good, interesting battle,” Anderson said.

“Steve Smith is one of the best batters in the world and Kagiso Rabada is one of my favourite bowlers to watch.

“I think he’s got so many attributes that just make me want to tune into the TV and watch him. He’s a fantastic player, so I’m really looking forward to that battle.”

WILL THE SOUTH AFRICAN SCARS FROM THE 2022/23 SERIES RESURFACE?

Bavuma looked as unsettled for a period at Lord’s on Tuesday as a batter must feel when copping a bouncer to the rib cage.

Asked to reflect on the lessons learned from South Africa’s disastrous tour of Australia in 2022/23, the South African captain said it proved a “critical turning point” for the team and himself.

Only rain in Sydney stopped this series from being a whitewash. Australia thumped the Proteas in Brisbane, routed them on Boxing Day and were in a dominant positing at the SCG in the rain-marred Test.

It was a difficult series for South Africa and Bavuma, who scored 185 at an average of 37 as one of the better performed batters, recoiled when it was brought up.

“The last time? Oh. That was not a good time, in Australia,” he said.

“After that, there were a couple of new faces from that series, but for a lot of us who were there, it was a bit of an eye opener playing against Australia and seeing how their batters went about their business. Facing their bowlers, you were always under pressure and you had to find ways to excerpt pressure back on them.

“I think that, at least for me, it gave me an opportunity to look at my game and see where I could improve and hopefully try to emulate the performances of those batters were putting up at that point in time.”

The sheer professionalism of the Australians had stunned them and they headed home with their tails between their legs while also understanding the ground they needed to make up to be competitive against and beat the best.

The appointment of Shukri Conrad as coach helped, Bavuma said, as he honed their talents to make them sharper against the red ball while also instilling significant belief in them.

“Also, as a way we wanted to play cricket as a whole, it influenced that,” Bavuma said.

“With a guy like Shukri coming in at the right time, if I could say that, when he came in he was encouraging guys to be themselves and play their best cricket. Hopefully those memories are behind us and we can create some new ones now.

“But I think it was a critical point in our journey as cricketers and for me, particularly.”

WHAT DOES THE FUTURE HOLD?

The boost in the prize money pool is significant because it provides an incentive for all nations to ensure there is a focus on Test cricket, even if the victors still earn less than the highest paid cricketers in the Indian Premier League. But it is a step forward.

Bavuma made this point when stressing the importance of South Africa reaching, and potentially winning, the WTC.

“I think of the way things are back home and I think there have already been benefits for the people back home,” he said.

“You think of the number of people who are flying in here to be a part of this occasion, to hopefully witness history, I think that really showcases the positive impact that the game is having on the country as a whole.

“With the younger guys being inspired by T20 cricket and all of that, I think that the efforts we are doing within the red ball space will hopefully inspire those younger guys to want to play red ball cricket.

“I think you would have seen with our squad that went to Zimbabwe, the younger guys … who are coming in, that tour will keep them chomping at the bat in terms of red ball cricket. So I think things are good.

“As us not being as economically strong as the other nations, we want to make sure that we are competitive. We want to make sure we are doing the right things on the field.”

Success in the WTC will not change the Australians lives given the various trophies and series this current side has claimed during a wildly successful stint.

As it stands Cummins, despite stating his preferred format is Test cricket, would put defending this WTC title behind their mammoth success in the ODI World Cup in India in 2023. But he made clear it would still rank highly.